{"id":11404,"date":"2018-04-12T14:44:20","date_gmt":"2018-04-12T18:44:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fieam.org.br\/fieam\/?p=11404"},"modified":"2018-04-12T14:44:20","modified_gmt":"2018-04-12T18:44:20","slug":"incertezas-dificultam-a-recuperacao-da-economia-brasileira","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/fieam.org.br\/fieam\/incertezas-dificultam-a-recuperacao-da-economia-brasileira\/","title":{"rendered":"Incertezas dificultam a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o da economia brasileira"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: center\"><em>CNI mant\u00e9m as previs\u00f5es de desempenho da atividade econ\u00f4mica. PIB do pa\u00eds crescer\u00e1 2,6% e a ind\u00fastria ter\u00e1 expans\u00e3o de 3% neste ano. Investimentos aumentar\u00e3o 4% e desemprego ficar\u00e1 em 11,8%<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Diante das\u00a0 incertezas em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s elei\u00e7\u00f5es e ao ajuste das contas p\u00fablicas, a<a href=\"http:\/\/www.portaldaindustria.com.br\/cni\/\"> Confedera\u00e7\u00e3o Nacional da Ind\u00fastria (CNI)<\/a>\u00a0mant\u00e9m as previs\u00f5es que apontam para um moderado desempenho da economia brasileira neste ano. A estimativa \u00e9 que o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) do pa\u00eds crescer\u00e1 apenas 2,6% e o PIB industrial ter\u00e1 expans\u00e3o de 3% neste ano. Os investimentos aumentar\u00e3o 4% e, o consumo das fam\u00edlias, 2,8%. A taxa m\u00e9dia de desemprego ficar\u00e1 em 11,8%, diz o\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.portaldaindustria.com.br\/publicacoes\/2017\/10\/informe-conjuntural\/\">Informe Conjuntural<\/a>\u00a0do primeiro trimestre, divulgado nesta quinta-feira, 12 de abril.<\/p>\n<p>O relat\u00f3rio destaca que, mesmo com o cen\u00e1rio externo favor\u00e1vel, a queda da infla\u00e7\u00e3o e a redu\u00e7\u00e3o dos juros, o ritmo de recupera\u00e7\u00e3o da economia \u00e9 moderado e o pa\u00eds n\u00e3o conseguir\u00e1 recuperar, no m\u00e9dio prazo, as perdas causadas pela recess\u00e3o. &#8220;Mesmo com o crescimento de 1% do PIB em 2017, ainda estamos com renda per capita 8,2% menor que em 2014 e a produ\u00e7\u00e3o industrial, no in\u00edcio de 2018, situa-se ainda 14% abaixo do seu pico observado em 2013&#8221;, afirma o Informe Conjuntural.<\/p>\n<p>Na avalia\u00e7\u00e3o da CNI, a principal causa da fraca rea\u00e7\u00e3o da economia \u00e9 a indefini\u00e7\u00e3o sobre o ajuste permanente das contas p\u00fablicas. Al\u00e9m do adiamento da reforma da Previd\u00eancia, a falta de defini\u00e7\u00e3o do quadro eleitoral \u00e9 outra fonte de incertezas sobre o ajuste fiscal. &#8220;A Previd\u00eancia \u00e9 o principal, mas n\u00e3o \u00e9 o \u00fanico elemento de preocupa\u00e7\u00e3o com a expans\u00e3o cont\u00ednua dos gastos p\u00fablicos. Medidas de disciplinamento dos gastos com pessoal s\u00e3o igualmente indispens\u00e1veis&#8221;, alerta a CNI.<\/p>\n<p>O Informe Conjuntural adverte ainda que o grande desafio do Brasil \u00e9 aumentar a produtividade. Isso requer, entre outras medidas, o equil\u00edbrio fiscal, a reforma da Previd\u00eancia, a reforma tribut\u00e1ria, disponibilidade de financiamento de longo praz, redu\u00e7\u00e3o da burocracia, seguran\u00e7a jur\u00eddica e modelos de regula\u00e7\u00e3o eficientes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Conhe\u00e7a outras previs\u00f5es da CNI para a economia brasileira em 2018:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Infla\u00e7\u00e3o:<\/strong>\u00a0O \u00cdndice de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor Amplo (IPCA) fechar\u00e1 o ano em 3,7% ao ano, abaixo do centro da meta de 4,5% estabelecida pelo Banco Central.\u00a0 &#8220;A infla\u00e7\u00e3o deve permanecer em n\u00edveis baixos em 2018 em fun\u00e7\u00e3o da ainda alta ociosidade da economia, da elevada taxa de desemprego e da quebra da in\u00e9rcia inflacion\u00e1ria ocorrida em 2017&#8221;,\u00a0 diz o Informe Conjuntural.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Juros:<\/strong>\u00a0Com a infla\u00e7\u00e3o baixa, os juros b\u00e1sicos da economia permanecer\u00e3o no menor patamar da hist\u00f3ria. A taxa Selic chegar\u00e1 ao fim de 2018 em 6,25% ao ano e a taxa real de juros ser\u00e1 de 3%.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Contas p\u00fablicas:<\/strong>\u00a0O d\u00e9ficit prim\u00e1rio do setor p\u00fablico deve alcan\u00e7ar R$ 152,7 bilh\u00f5es, o equivalente a 2,19% do PIB. &#8220;Apesar de estar abaixo da meta de R$ 161,3 bilh\u00f5es fixada para este ano, o d\u00e9ficit ser\u00e1 maior do que os R$ 110,6 bilh\u00f5es registrados em 2017&#8221;, afirma o relat\u00f3rio da CNI.\u00a0 A d\u00edvida p\u00fablica atingir\u00e1 73,7% do PIB.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Saldo comercial:\u00a0<\/strong>O Brasil ter\u00e1 um super\u00e1vit comercial de US$ 58 bilh\u00f5es neste ano, resultado de exporta\u00e7\u00f5es de US$ 230 bilh\u00f5es e importa\u00e7\u00f5es de US$ 172 bilh\u00f5es.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CNI mant\u00e9m as previs\u00f5es de desempenho da atividade econ\u00f4mica. PIB do pa\u00eds crescer\u00e1 2,6% e a ind\u00fastria ter\u00e1 expans\u00e3o de 3% neste ano. Investimentos aumentar\u00e3o 4% e desemprego ficar\u00e1 em 11,8% &nbsp; Diante das\u00a0 incertezas em rela\u00e7\u00e3o \u00e0s elei\u00e7\u00f5es e ao ajuste das contas p\u00fablicas, a Confedera\u00e7\u00e3o Nacional da Ind\u00fastria (CNI)\u00a0mant\u00e9m as previs\u00f5es que apontam [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11405,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28,30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banner-destaque","category-news_destaque"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Incertezas dificultam a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o da economia brasileira - FIEAM<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/fieam.org.br\/fieam\/incertezas-dificultam-a-recuperacao-da-economia-brasileira\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Incertezas dificultam a recupera\u00e7\u00e3o da economia brasileira - FIEAM\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"CNI mant\u00e9m as previs\u00f5es de desempenho da atividade econ\u00f4mica. 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